Oregon took a different approach to planning its initial response and other actions to save lives in the event of a major disaster.
Members from the Oregon and Kentucky National Guard train together to treat injured victims
SALEM, ORE.—LOOMING OFF the coast of the Pacific Northwest lies the Cascadia subduction zone. This fault, which runs from Northern California to British Columbia is capable of producing magnitude 9.0 earthquakes and devastatingly powerful tsunami. This hazard was unknown to scientists until the mid-1990s, with its most recent quake occurring in 1700. Research has shown that this fault has generated a major earthquake (over magnitude 7.5) at least 40 times in the past 10,000 years, meaning they occur, on average, every 250 years. A Cascadia subduction zone earthquake is past due.
The most accurate estimates of impacts from a Cascadia quake and tsunami reveal a picture of complete destruction along the Oregon and Washington coasts and severe impacts to critical infrastructure and lifelines in metropolitan areas like Portland and Seattle. A magnitude 9.0 quake could generate shaking for up to five minutes, followed by hundreds of aftershocks. The initial tsunami wave could reach heights of more than 50 feet and push more than a mile inland in some flat areas along the coast.
Bridges, cellular network towers and unreinforced masonry structures may collapse throughout the 140,000-square-mile area expected to be most severely impacted, as much of the region's infrastructure was built before the earthquake hazards of the Pacific Northwest were widely understood or studied. Thousands of lives will be lost, mostly due to the tsunami, and depending on the time of year, much of the soil beneath structures will liquefy, causing further structural collapse and landslides that will leave whole communities isolated.
Emergency planners typically develop planning frameworks that guide initial response procedures for a variety of scenarios, and modify plans based upon the actual impacts of the emergency or disaster. If one considers a typical response to a residential fire, the fire departments have a general idea of the actions they will take before they arrive, like the need to connect to a fire hydrant, stretch hose lines, and conduct a search for victims.
However, upon arrival, firefighters immediately begin conducting a size-up of the emergency and adjust their tactics as necessary. In a Cascadia scenario, we know it may be days, if not weeks, until we are able to adequately conduct a complete size-up of the disaster and its impacts. Therefore, Oregon needed to take a different approach to planning our initial response and taking actions to save and sustain lives.
The Cascadia Playbook is designed to ensure the actions taken with the limited resources we expect to have available to us immediately following a Cascadia quake have clear goals and objectives for the first two weeks. This critical time allows us to conduct our size-up and work to build plans based on the assessment of actual impacts, versus the pre-disaster estimates and research that guides what is in the playbook.
Two previous versions of the playbook were organized according to specific functions, such as "notification" and "mass care." In 2016, Oregon participated in "Cascadia Rising," a multiday, regional exercise to test the playbook. One of the observations from that exercise was that it was hard for decision-makers to determine if the limited resources expected to be available following a Cascadia quake were being used as efficiently as possible.
Version 3 of the playbook, released in October 2018, was reorganized to base each play on specific time frames, with the goal of completing actions in one play before the next play began. For example, Play 1 (which covers actions to be initiated within the first 60 minutes of the ground shaking) indicates that the Oregon Office of Emergency Management will activate the state's Emergency Coordination Center and if the primary center is not a viable location due to damage, determine which alternate facility should be used. This action would then be expected to be complete before the next play (Play 2), which begins six hours after the initial shaking.
Although this update of the playbook shifted to time-based response, the responsibilities for taking certain actions throughout the playbook are assigned to each of Oregon's 18 emergency support functions, which include transportation, communications, energy, public health and mass care. Each emergency support function has a state agency that provides leadership for that function. This update also seeks to utilize "SMART" objectives for each task identified. That is, create objectives that are specific, measurable, action-oriented, realistic and time sensitive.
While version 3 of the playbook is an improvement on previous iterations based on lessons learned through exercises, there is still more work to be done. Even greater specificity and detail will be necessary for each of the plays to ensure we are maximizing limited, post-disaster resources. We are also using the playbook to pre-script requests we will make from our federal partners and through the Emergency Management Assistance Compact, a nationwide mutual aid agreement that allows states to share resources during emergencies.
It is also important to note that this new playbook mirrors the preparedness message we have been sharing with the public. In 2016, Oregon became the first state in the nation to shift from recommending three days (72 hours) of preparedness supplies to recommending Oregonians be prepared to be on their own for at least two weeks.
Understanding that preparing for this length of time can seem daunting, we recommend Oregonians break our "two weeks ready" message into more manageable pieces and consider what they will need in the first two minutes following a disaster, the first two hours, first two days and then the first two weeks. Like the playbook, those in Oregon will need to prioritize how they respond as the disaster progresses and identify what will be important for them, their families and their communities until a formal response arrives.
The threat posed by Cascadia is frightening. However, we hope that by publicizing the innovative planning undertaken in Oregon to prepare for this impending disaster that those in Oregon and the tens of millions of visitors Oregon receives each year understand we are working hard to ensure we are as ready as any state can be to respond when the ground starts to shake, and that there are actions everyone can take to ensure they will be disaster survivors, not victims.
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